Lebanon’s “Once-in-a-Lifetime Chance” and Hezbollah’s Role
ملخص
In r/Lebanon, this announcement questions whether Lebanon’s post-ceasefire opportunity has passed, examining reported US disarmament deadlines and the government’s ability to control decisions on war and peace. It connects Hezbollah’s weapons to Iran’s ongoing conflict and considers why the issue matters for Lebanon’s sovereignty and future.
I think the "chance" lebanon was given has expired
Ever since the ceasefire deal, there's been a lot of talk about a "once in a lifetime chance" being given to lebanon, Trump mentioned in his visit to saudi saying that lebanon has a chance that might never come again. There was also leaks of a date being set by USA for the leb gov to disarm hezb which was mid june, and the president was trying to negotiate the date for September so that it doesnt impact tourism in the summer, those leaks were mentioned by both moumena3a and anti momena3a journalists.
I dont think the date set by the US was a random one, and looking back on it now i think it makes sense with what is going on right now and what is yet to come and i believe this was the "chance" that was talked about.
Hezb weapons arent just rockets and drones, it's a "position", an answer to the question "which side are u gonna be on in case of a US-Iran war?", it makes the gov position on the matter irrelevant regardless of what they say because simply a gov that doesnt have exclusivity of weapons doesnt have the exclusivity of decision. And with hezb's "situation" it makes it even worse...let's be real if the lebanese gov said dont attack israel or blow US embassies and khamenei issues a fatwa to seek revenge against "the great devil", who do u think hezb will listen to?
So atm, the response to the above question is that we're still on the iranian side bcz hezb can still decide to start a war and the gov still cant and wont stop them from doing so.
The war in iran isn't gonna end anytime soon by the looks of it, evrything suggests that they've reached a dead end in the negotiation. Iran is not gonna give away their nuclear project which they have been working on for the past 50 years and israel/US are not gonna call it a day and return to pre oct 7. Just look at the events of the last 2 years, hamas hit, houthis hit, hezb hit, assad removed...all these were done to get to iran, israel couldn't fly comfortably over syria if assad's air defenses were still in place and they couldnt hit iran comfortably with...
Post Author: /u/Crypto3arz
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