Lebanon’s Ceasefire and Israel Talks: What Comes Next?
Zusammenfassung
In r/Lebanon, this announcement examines how a possible US-Iran ceasefire deal leaves the Hezbollah-Israel conflict and Lebanon’s future unresolved. It highlights upcoming direct Israeli-Lebanese talks, discussions with Lebanese military officials, and the Lebanese government’s role in pursuing a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon.
building a startup in Lebanon
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Post Author: /u/Advanced_Surround_53
Content Warning: None
Now that the US and Iran are close to a ceasefire deal, the Lebanese file is completely ignored.
Leaks and media reports indicate that the US and Iran are close to achieving a more durable ceasefire deal, which would essentially return to the status quo ante on February 27th, 2026, before the war started. The deal would lift the US naval blockade and reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz, and the nuclear issue would be addressed at a later date.
As expected, the role of Iranian proxies was not discussed, and I highly doubt that any question of proxies will be discussed before a nuclear understanding between the US and Iran even happens.
Therefore, all this Lebanese media commentary that the only thing that matters for the country's trajectory today is the U.S.-Iranian negotiations is wildly inaccurate. As you can see, the Americans and the Iranians agreed on a ceasefire (de-escalation) deal with the main nuclear issue deferred for the future, and no mention of Iranian funding and support for its proxies at all.
So what happens now with the war between Hezbollah and Israel? What happens with the negotiations in the Pentagon with Lebanese military officials? And with the next round of direct Israeli-Lebanese negotiations in June?
Will there be de-escalation on both sides, and will there be any Israeli withdrawal from our territory? All of these are unclear, and clearly, these topics were not debated or discussed in the Iranian-US negotiations.
These are some things that we, as Lebanese, would have to resolve on our own through international diplomacy. Still, the onus of achieving a real ceasefire and liberating the land in South Lebanon will fall to the Lebanese government.
So all these bets that Iran might negotiate a resolution inclusive of Lebanon have been lost and were very inaccurate wishes, bets, or even expectations.
Similarly, people who hoped the US would force Iran to stop funding and arming Hezbollah are expectedly disappointed.
My conclusion is that we are less important than we think, and it's mostly just our immediate neighbors that concern themselves with us. And it's up to us...
Post Author: /u/Standard_Ad7704
Content Warning: None
