Syria Events May Shift US Policy on Hezbollah Disarmament
Resumo
In r/Lebanon, this opinion discusses how violence against Druze civilians in Suwayda may affect US support for swiftly or forcibly disarming Hezbollah. It contrasts Syria’s militia-led forces with the Lebanese Armed Forces and considers dialogue as a way to reduce sectarian violence and protect Lebanon’s stability.
Opinion: Events in Syria will likely change the US eagerness for a swift and/or forceful disarmament of Hezbollah.
First of all, I don't want to comment specifically on what happened in Syria, but I do need to say this. I hope all civilians in Syria are safe, and my heart goes out to the Druze civilians in Suwayda, who are currently in a very difficult position because of the attacks against them. And I hope for all civilians, and my Druze brothers specifically, to be safe and sound always.
The idea, basically, of what Tom Barak said about encouraging the Syrian president to create this unified, centralized country, in which the idea is to monopolize arms only to the state and disarm all nonstate actors, is taking place, and we see the dangers of such a strategy when you try to disarm by force.
Obviously, the Syrian situation is very different, and the conduct of the Syrian army is basically a ragtag group of militias that do not live up to the standards of an army, so they cannot be compared to the conduct and professionalism of the LAF, disregarding actual military capabilities. So the Syrian army is basically a collection of militias, many are religious extremists. But we can somewhat put this under the very general "title" of disarming non-state armed groups. Where the Syrian nominal army tried to disarm the Druze by force.
But regardless, this episode shows us that the US would probably revise their eagerness to disarm Hezbollah quickly, swiftly, and decisively, because you can see when you try to disarm a group through force and coercion, the result would be sectarian battles and sectarian blood, and it would possibly change what could have been a more streamlined operation into something very messy and one that would endanger the entirety of the Lebanese state.
So I think for now, even the US would try to scale back its demands for the forceful disarmament of Hezbollah and would likely favor Aoun's approach of dialogue. In my personal opinion, Aoun's approach to dialogue is not going to go anywhere, and therefore, Hezbollah will not be disarmed anytime soon because dialogue won't solve shit. But Aoun is probably...
Post Author: /u/Standard_Ad7704
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