Why Accurate Trading Signals Can Still Mislead
https://youtu.be/3KC7OZcpShI
The base-rate problem in a perfect-looking signal #Shorts
A signal can look accurate and still produce many false alarms when the event is rare. Imagine one thousand cases, with a real event in only ten of them. A detector catches nine of those ten events. Now suppose it also flags one percent of the nine hundred ninety non-events, roughly ten false alarms. You receive about nineteen alerts, but only n...
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