MSFT Keltner: Why 2 ATRs Aren’t a 95% Interval
Summary
Hollow Point Trading shares a historical Microsoft IEX replay using completed five-minute bars to explain why two average true ranges do not automatically form a 95% probability interval. The analysis specifies a 20-period close EMA and Wilder ATR, highlighting the importance of understanding how trading indicators are calculated.
https://youtu.be/UU_H_9R8FxQ
MSFT Keltner: two ATRs do not mean a 95 percent interval #Shorts

Two average true ranges do not automatically create a ninety five percent probability interval. This historical Microsoft IEX replay uses completed five minute bars from October eighth, twenty twenty six. We declare a twenty period close EMA seeded at the first available close, and twenty period Wilder ATR seeded with twenty true ranges. At the ...